When can I stop?

Financial Independence, Retire Early. Two answers, equally important: the dollar number you need, and the calendar year you reach it.

01Where you stand
$
$/mo
yr
%
02The goal
$
FIRE Number = expenses × 25= $1.1M
%
4% rule (Trinity Study) — portfolio lasts 30+ years 95% of the time
03 · The two answers
Your FIRE number · the target
$1.05M
= $42k/yr ÷ 4% withdrawal rule
You'll arrive in · the journey
24.5 years
August 2051 · age 55 · contributing $2.0k/mo
Where you are right now$50k of $1.1M · 4.8%
Savings rate
36%
Total contributed
$462k
Compound earned
$588k
COAST FIRE
$159k
The cost of waiting
Start 5 years later and you'll have $120k less in compound — and FIRE moves to year 29.5.
The first $50k took years. The last $50k toward FIRE takes months — because compound is doing the work, not you.
See the growth curve · milestones · sensitivity
02 · The path

From $50k today to $1.1M in 24.5 years

Portfolio balance · with compound vs without · today's dollars
Balance w/ compound
Contributions only
Compound gains
FIRE TARGET · $1.1MCOAST FIRE · Y4.0LeanFIRE · Y20.0FIRE · Y24.5$1.1M0k350k700k1.1M1.4Myr 091725
Milestones · stages on the way
COAST FIRE
$159k
You can stop contributing — compound finishes the job
LeanFIRE
$788k
75% of target · barebones early exit
FIRE
$1.1M
Full target · 25× expenses · 4% withdrawal
FatFIRE
$1.3M
125% of target · comfortable buffer
Year by year · today's dollars
YearPortfolioContributedCompounded% to FIRE
Y01$77k$73k$3.4k
7%
Y05$191k$160k$31k
18%
Y10$355k$255k$100k
34%
Y15$550k$337k$214k
52%
Y25$1.1M$468k$616k
FIRE
03 · Sensitivity

One lever at a time

ChangeFrom → toNew yearsDifferenceNote
Monthly +$500+$500/mo21.5 yr-3.0 yrSame target, faster
Return +1pp8% → 9%22.1 yr-2.4 yrAllocation tilt risk
Expenses −$5k/yr−$5,000/yr22.5 yr-2.0 yrLowers the FIRE target
Start 5 years latertoday +5yr23.3 yr-1.2 yr$120k less compound
WR 3% (safer)4% → 3%29.4 yr+4.9 yrTarget jumps ~33%
Return −1pp8% → 7%27.8 yr+3.3 yrStress-test scenario
COAST FIRE
$159k
If you stop contributing today and just let the portfolio grow at 8%, you'll still reach $1.1M by year 24.5 — but only if your balance today is at least $159k. That's the COAST FIRE threshold.
Tune the engine
Investment calculator
See how each input changes the growth curve — return, contribution, horizon.
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Find the $2.0k
Budget — feed the FIRE
The monthly contribution comes from a budget that names every dollar. See where it can come from.
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